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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.